Chart: Guy Carpenter US Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, 2000-2023

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The Guy Carpenter US Rate on Line (ROL) Index increased 31.3% for January 2023 renewals. The average change in ROL was tempered by broad-based increases in retentions as programs moved further away from loss frequency.

  • The last year to have a greater single-year shift in the US index was 2006, driven by more regionalized increases without the same level of broad program restructuring across the portfolio.
  • 2006 represented a single-year spike, with decreases recorded the year before and after. 
  • In contrast, 2023 represents the 6th straight year of increases, 3 of those years in double digits, cumulatively generating an almost 100% increase in the index over those 6 years.

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The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base. The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions. Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.