In this paper from ScienceDirect’s Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Guy Carpenter’s Kristie Kaminski, Peril Advisory Analyst, North America Peril Advisory, joins other experts in analyzing derecho impacts on US crop conditions and yield.
During most summer growing seasons, corn and soybeans in the US are impacted by derechos—long-lived, convectively induced windstorms that produce damaging wind gusts over a widespread area. This study employs a storm-tracking algorithm and severe convective wind reports to identify derecho footprints and integrates them with weekly US Department of Agriculture crop condition data to assess changes in corn and soybean conditions and modeled yield over a 9-year period (2015–2023).
With county-level yield declines as severe as 37%, derechos caused condition and yield declines comparable to hurricanes over the historical crop condition period. Overall, 75% of corn- and soybean-producing counties affected by a derecho experienced a subsequent decline in crop conditions. Derecho frequency maximizes over the Corn Belt, resulting in large potential exposure and crop losses due to the high density and productivity of crops in this region.
However, peak temporal derecho frequency does not directly equate to greater crop losses. Crop areas that experienced reported wind gusts ≥120 kph were more likely to exhibit condition declines, with the magnitude of degradation generally increasing as crops progressed through vegetative and reproductive stages.