Terrorism, political violence and other malicious acts differ from other insurable perils in that they are dynamic and adaptive; there is human intent driving the probability and willing the impacts to change. Historic incidents show past trends, but those are only partial drivers of future trends as terrorists adapt their tactics in response to past effectiveness and current circumstances.
COVID-19 has complicated an already volatile political risk landscape. The geopolitical flashpoints highlighted in Marsh JLT Specialty's March 2020 report have not gone away. Marsh JLT Specialty is an affiliate of Guy Carpenter.
Given this scenario, Marsh JLT Specialty has published the Political Risk Map 2020: Mid-Year Update, providing risk ratings for 197 countries across nine perils covering the security, trading, and investment environment from January to July 2020. The data is drawn from World Risk Review, Marsh JLT Specialty's proprietary country risk platform.
Marsh JLT Specialty's interactive map is live so you can check the risk ratings for the countries that you are doing business in or considering for the future.
The challenge in creating a terrorism risk model is achieving sufficient precision and refinement of each module to make the model credible – particularly the hazard module, because of the changeable and dynamic nature of the peril. Guy Carpenter’s proprietary terrorism model, Sunstone™, contains over one million global targets, probability matrices for eight different regions and reflects the full spectrum of attack types from large catastrophic events to lower level, more frequent events.