Renewal Resource Center

On the Road to 1/1

As we look forward to January 1 renewals and 2024, Guy Carpenter will be providing insights, commentary and updates from global industry meetings and events throughout the remainder of the year.

The market evolution at mid-year indicates that for upcoming property renewals price adequacy across lines and supportable structures should drive sufficient capacity levels. Cedent differentiation is crucial with reinsurers seeking to support quality programs.

Guy Carpenter expects the market to remain firm at January 1, but after twelve months of material and verifiable corrections, more stable conditions should carry forward.

Please continue to check back in with this Renewals HUB regularly for updates.

Latest Insights

Global Specialties Market Update: Executive Summary

The specialties reinsurance market globally is emerging from a turbulent time in its history with the January 1, 2023 renewals marking one of the most challenging placement periods in decades. A confluence of macro-economic factors and historical performance issues caused a step change in conditions across nearly every sector.

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Double-Whammy? Examining the Correlation Between Major Cyber Events and Broad Market Performance

This report addresses ILS funds’ other concern around correlation between cyber events and the performance of the equity market, which, in turn, drives the performance of their investment portfolios. There is a long-held skepticism among the investment community that when a systemic cyber catastrophe event happens, it would result in a wide-ranging stock market downturn, since such an attack tends to be indiscriminate, and its victims would span across the entire economy.

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The Reinsurance Market Sees a New Cadence Emerge

The reinsurance market continues to demonstrate its resilience in response to ongoing and new global challenges, as reinsurers look to deploy more capital in 2024 in an environment of improved rate adequacy while demand for reinsurance increases. This is the view of a panel of business leaders who participated in a virtual media briefing, “A New Cadence” hosted by Guy Carpenter which addressed market conditions ahead of the January 1, 2024 reinsurance renewals.

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David Priebe

“Heading into January 2024 renewals, we believe demand for reinsurance will grow with reinsurers’ willingness to deploy capital also increasing—although underwriting discipline will not subside. Thorough preparation and thoughtful differentiation will enable cedents to adjust their own approach and leverage a range of solutions to transform risk into profitable returns.”
Dorothée Mélis-Moutafis

“Extensive and verifiable corrections over the past year are likely to equate to hard, but more manageable renewals for cedents at January 1 as reinsurer appetite is slowly growing in response to price adequacy and supportable structures.”
Josh Darr

“While global warming has a direct influence on hazards such as extreme heat and heavy precipitation, the influence on perils that have driven losses this year, mainly US severe convective storm, wildfire and tropical cyclone induced flooding, is more nuanced.”
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For Media Inquiry

Jennifer Ainslie, Head of EMEA Marketing & Communications

+44.20.7357.2058
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Paul Caricone, SVP, Marketing Intelligence

+1.646.245.6867
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July 2023 renewals

The broader market trends seen at January 1, 2023 continued at mid-year renewals, but with improved timing and concurrence around terms and conditions. While property pricing saw continued risk-adjusted rate increases in many segments, the average change moderated from January 1.

Global property catastrophe reinsurance risk-adjusted rate increases ranged from +10% to +50%, with loss-impacted clients often seeing higher pricing. In the US, property catastrophe reinsurance risk-adjusted rate increases were on average the highest in 17 years, with loss-free accounts generally up +20% to +50%.

The preliminary year-to-date Guy Carpenter US Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, an alternative measure of price change that incorporates the impact of structural adjustments and current views of risk on actual dollars paid, increased 35% for January through July renewals.