Executive Summary
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of oceanic and seasonal patterns. In El Niño years, we typically see more tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific, while in La Niña years, there tends to be lower activity.
- The current La Niña phase is short-lived and weak. 2025 is likely to be an ENSO-neutral year.
- Based on a machine learning model Guy Carpenter co-developed in partnership with Fudan University in Shanghai and past observations, we expect the number of tropical cyclone formations and intense typhoons in the Western North Pacific will likely be near-normal.
- The number of landfalls in northern East Asia will likely be below-normal, while it is below-normal to near-normal in the southern regions.
