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2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

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Key headlines

  • A strong El Niño is forecasted to develop this summer, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center indicating a 90% chance of El Niño conditions for peak season (August-October).
  • El Niño conditions typically lead to lower-than-average hurricane activity across the Atlantic. Wind shear, or changing winds with height, increases across the Tropical Atlantic during an El Niño, and is disruptive to tropical cyclone development.
  • The likelihood of a “Super El Niño” is growing, though peak strength of the El Niño event will likely be after the conclusion of the hurricane season. Hurricane seasons since 1950 that have experienced Super El Niño conditions have averaged only ~10 named storms and ~4 hurricanes.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain above average across the Gulf of Mexico and the Subtropical Atlantic, perhaps offsetting some of the negative effects of elevated wind shear on hurricane development.
  • Drier-than-normal conditions are expected during the peak season across the main development region and Caribbean Sea, potentially leading to a lower number of storm days than average.

 

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