2026 Western North Pacific Typhoon season outlook

Summary: May 12, 2026

• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of oceanic and seasonal patterns. In El Niño years, we typically see more tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP), while in La Niña years, there tends to be lower activity.
• El Niño is expected to develop in the second half of 2026.
• Based on a machine learning model Guy Carpenter co-developed in partnership with Fudan University in Shanghai and past observations, we expect the number of tropical cyclone formations in the Western North Pacific will likely be near-normal.
• The number of landfalls in Japan and Korea will likely be above-normal, while it is expected to be below to near-normal in the Philippines.

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