Key headlines
Above-average activity year-to-date
The first half of 2026 has been more active than normal for US severe convective storms (SCS), with preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports indicating 36% above the 2016-2025 average through June 30. Elevated tornado and straight-line wind activity has been the primary driver of the above-average totals, while hail reports remained slightly below average overall.
Insured losses lower than past several years
While SCS cat events are tracking close to the 10-year average, overall severity is notably lower per event, as are the overall losses. In part, this is due to the lack of activity in Texas, the Southern Plains and the Southeast US. While losses continue to develop, 2026 is tracking to the lowest industry losses since 2021 and 2019.
Regionality of activity
Severe weather impacts have been most concentrated in the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley, while parts of the Great Plains and Southeast have been comparatively quieter. Activity in Illinois and Indiana has been nearly four times above average. Conversely, the Southern Plains and Southeast US have experienced well-below-average storm activity.
Elevated monthly volatility
After a benign January/February of early-year activity, severe storm reports were double the average in March and remained elevated in April. While activity dipped below average in May, largely driven by lower-than-average hail activity, June featured well above average activity again, driven by elevated wind reports.
2026 notable records
131-mph wind gust on June 29 in South Dakota, likely the largest measured across the United States since 1983; 6.6-inch hailstone in Kankakee, Illinois, on March 10 broke the Illinois state record and is likely the largest stone measured east of the Mississippi River.
The El Niño transition
Much publicity has been made of the pending strong El Niño event in the second half of the year. The atmosphere was in a lingering La Niña phase for most of early 2026. The strengthening El Niño will have the most pronounced impact for Spring 2027 activity and is dependent on the intensity and duration of the event.