Access the full report
Key headlines: As of September 23, 2026
Historically quiet Atlantic Basin hurricane season
The 2026 tropical Atlantic season is rivaling the quietest on record. No hurricanes have formed yet this season, while six tropical storms have been short lived. The forecast remains quiet for further activity through the end of September.
Another potential Hawaii event on the horizon
The remnants of Tropical Depression 15 should regenerate toward the end of the week south of the big island of Hawaii. Some weather models look for this storm (next name: Nolo) to bring rain and potentially tropical storm conditions to the state this coming weekend. This would be the third tropical event for Hawaii this season.
A weekend nor’easter for the US Eastern Seaboard?
While rare in September, an unseasonably strong mid-latitude low-pressure system is forecast to intensify off the coast of North Carolina on Friday and slowly move toward southern New England by Sunday, when rainfall and winds of 35-50 mph are possible from the Delmarva Peninsula north to Maine. While not anticipated to be an appreciable insured loss event, it is rare to have a winter-style, low-pressure system of this magnitude in September.
Hurricane Polo reaches category 5 in East Pacific
The third category 5 hurricane of the East Pacific season, Polo looks to stay offshore for the next five days. The 2026 season ties 1994 for the most Eastern Pacific category 5 hurricanes on record at this point in the season.
West Pacific typhoon season well above average
As forecast — and expected with a strengthening El Niño event in the Pacific — the statistics for the West Pacific Basin (west of the International Date line) are above average. However, category 3 or higher typhoons, currently 4, are behind the average of 5.5.
The very strong El Niño strengthens further
Heavily influencing the dichotomy of tropical activity across the Northern Hemisphere, the current El Niño breached +3.0°C last week. This rivals the strongest on record from 2015-16, 1997-98, and 1982-83. Further strengthening is expected, pushing this event into uncharted territory relative to the historical record.