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Key headlines: As of September 24, 2026
Tropical Storm Nolo to impact the big island of Hawaii: The official forecast calls for Polo to strengthen into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by Saturday, moving slowly north toward the Big Island of Hawaii. Thereafter, a turn to the west will likely result in the center of the storm remaining just offshore. Any delay in the turn west will result in more significant wind impacts. A hurricane watch has been issued for the Big Island.
Most active Hawaii season on record: Nolo is expected to bring widespread flooding, mud/landslides to the Big Island and Maui. Nolo occurs just six weeks after Hurricane Lala made the closest approach to the Big Island of any storm on record. Lala is estimated to have caused US$200 million of insured losses, predominantly to the Big Island. No hurricane has ever made a direct landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii.
The weekend nor’easter for southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic remains as forecasted: Peak wind gusts of near 60 mph are anticipated on the south facing shoreline of New England this weekend. Some treefall and power outages are anticipated. Coastal flooding will be most pronounced from Virginia northward to Long Island.
Hurricane Polo maintains Category 5 in East Pacific: Tracking slowly northwest across near record warm sea-surface temperatures for the region, Polo continues to be an impressive hurricane, fortunately staying offshore to only bring tropical storm force winds on the west coast of Mexico. There is increasing confidence Polo will eventually turn to the northeast and make landfall on Monday on the central Baja California peninsula. Polo has the chance to be the strongest landfalling hurricane on record this far north in the East Pacific basin. From an insurance perspective, the central Baja California peninsula is relatively unpopulated.
Polo to bring beneficial rainfall to drought areas: After Polo makes landfall and the remnants track into the southwest US, the moisture will merge with a frontal system. The tropical moisture will bring beneficial rainfall to a wide swath of the southwest and central US, which has been experiencing a strengthening drought this summer.