May 2025
The flooding that affected the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman and surrounding areas is considered one of the most impactful flooding events in the Gulf’s recent history. Natural climate variability played a key role in the severity of this event, and a lack of adequate drainage resulted in significant damage. Human-induced climate change may have also contributed to the intensity of rainfall. This highlights the importance of quantifying flood risk to inform appropriate decision making.
Covered Topics
Key Takeaways
- Heavy rainstorms and flash flooding impacted the UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Iran in April 2024.
- Based on Guy Carpenter’s analysis (as of August 31, 2024), Guy Carpenter estimates total insured losses arising from this event to exceed USD 2.9 billion and could reach as high as USD 3.4 billion for the UAE (of which motor represents approximately 10%).
- The National Center of Meteorology announced that the UAE experienced the largest amount of rainfall since 1949, with more than 250 millimetres (mm) in a single day.
- The rainfall intensity was partly due to natural variability (El Niño) and climate change. Cloud seeding was not found to have any significant effect.
- Insufficient drainage worsened impacts, with motorists disrupted by the flooding when roads became impassable.
- After the flooding, His Highness Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the current UAE president and ruler of Abu Dhabi, announced a large-scale infrastructure project, known as Tasreef, to upgrade the UAE’s flood defences starting in 2025. This is expected to cost USD 8 billion and boost Dubai’s drainage capacity seven-fold.
- Quantifying flood risk is essential to informed decision-making and risk management.
- Guy Carpenter has developed a GCAT UAE Flood Model and global GCAT Risk Rating to support effective risk management and underwriting strategies.