In this briefing, Guy Carpenter’s Sandra Hansen, Head of International Peril Advisory, and Marsh’s Callum Ellis, Head of Climate Resilience, share insights into observed natural catastrophe trends, and how resilience and adaptation efforts can help prevent unexpected losses.
The landscape of natural catastrophe losses is shifting from peak perils ceded to (re)insurers to non-peak perils retained by primary insurers. At the same time, perils traditionally classed as “secondary” or “non-peak” are increasingly contributing to insured losses. An analysis of all natural catastrophe losses in Europe above USD 100 million highlights that between 2021 and 2024, more than 70% of insured losses were attributable to flood, wildfire and severe convective storm (SCS).
This compares to approximately 30% for the period between 2017 and 2020. Numerous factors, including inflation and urbanization, have driven increased losses, but many of these higher-frequency perils are also impacted by climate change.