Access the full report
Key headlines as of October 9, 2026
Track and timing
Hurricane Isaias is on track to make landfall on the western Florida Panhandle Friday evening. The center is forecast to move across the Gulf Coast through the overnight hours, with accelerating northward motion.
Intensity forecast challenges
Hurricane Isaias is now a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Above-average sea surface temperatures have played a stronger role in intensification than the increasing wind shear as Isaias approaches the coast. Isaias is expected to be a dangerous hurricane at landfall, with accompanying storm surge of 6-10 feet, strong winds, tornado threat and flooding.
Rainfall and flooding
Heavy rainfall is now ongoing across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast and will increase as Isaias moves onshore. Flash flooding, urban flooding and significant riverine flooding are expected to continue throughout the weekend across multiple states.
Extensive tornado threat
Isaias is likely to produce tornadoes in its outer rain bands north and east of the center. The threat starts along coastal Alabama and northwest Florida Friday night and further inland on Saturday, mainly along and east of Interstate 65, as the storm accelerates north. Tornadoes that accompany landfalling hurricanes are often embedded in heavy rain bands with little warning.
Storm surge and coastal wind
Life-threatening storm surge is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Surge may funnel into coastal bays and inlets, and surge-prone areas may see inundation greater than 8 feet above ground level. Hurricane-force winds could cause structure damage as well as long-duration power outages for residents of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi.
Potential losses
Slight deviations in track and intensity will significantly change loss outcomes. A more westerly track favors higher losses into Mobile Bay, while a more easterly track will keep losses lower. Hurricane Eloise (1975), Opal (1995) and Dennis (2005) are the three historical events most like Isaias. This sets an insured loss expectation in the mid-single digits of billions of dollars based on a repeat of those three hurricanes.