Managing Risk

Confidence in the face of uncertainty.

Guy Carpenter analytics professionals provide critical measurement and insight in an industry where knowledge is a competitive advantage. Deeply specialized quantitative skills and sophisticated modeling assure that our clients are the best informed and best prepared to make franchise-changing risk and capital decisions.

Guy Carpenter brings objectivity, as well as expertise, to the business of catastrophe modeling. We help our clients select the best available models for each peril and geography, and help them evaluate and apply the results.

Where models are insufficient – or non-existent – we have developed our own. Guy Carpenter has pioneered flood modeling in Europe, Latin America and Asia, including the first flood models for several Chinese cities.

How good are your models?

Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® puts alternative catastrophe models through a rigorous comparison, identifying strong points and deficits. The systematic approach does more than test the models. It helps Guy Carpenter clients fine-tune their own tolerances for risk and evaluate – not simply accept – a model’s result.

Confidence that your reinsurance program is optimal. Reinsurance buyers need to demonstrate benefits to many different constituents, each of whom focuses on different key decision metrics: ceded premium, capital cost savings, combined ratio benefit, earnings stabilization, even rating agency capital adequacy. Guy Carpenter’s Reinsurance Decision Tool provides you a transparent balanced scorecard of those metrics, giving you confidence in understanding and communicating the value of your reinsurance purchases.

Who in Guy Carpenter’s world knows the most about the challenge you face? We deliver that person. Our job is putting knowledge at your fingertips and know-how in the room. Analytics professionals dovetail with our Business Intelligence specialists who compile market data for benchmarking and pricing strategies.

Technology-enabled analytics put you in control. Our solutions coalesce client data once visible only in isolation to enable data-driven decisions in real time. MetaRisk® brings underwriting, reserve, catastrophe, credit, and risk assessment capabilities together in a single economic capital planning solution. GC AdvantagePoint® generates a comprehensive view of all profitability components, helping clients align day-to-day underwriting decisions with enterprise goals.

Innovation – where it’s needed most

The 2011 Thailand floods were a painful reminder of gaps in commercial flood models for Asia – a gap that Guy Carpenter has been working to fill. We recognized this risk in 2008 and were the first to develop a flood model for Thailand. Our leadership role in modeling floods in Asia has continued and in 2012, we released a probabilistic flood model for India that covers 23 urban areas. In 2013, Guy Carpenter released the first flood modeling capability for China, which is based on detailed hazard maps covering 10 urban areas and the Taihu Lake region.

On behalf of our clients we use the latest technology, including satellite imagery, to quickly assess incurred losses after a catastrophic event.  A combination of catastrophe models — both external and internal — as well as the use of satellite imagery has informed the loss estimates provided to clients following Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and the June 2013 flooding events in Germany and Central Europe.


Emerging practices in risk tolerances

Insurers have long embraced the concept of risk tolerances. In some cases, the risk tolerances were expressly stated in a company's enterprise risk management (ERM) policy document or in other cases exhibited in the course of normal operations. Article written by Brian C. Fischer, Managing Director, GC Analytics.

How profitable is the business you are writing?

GC AdvantagePoint® integrates point-of-sale decision making with strategic portfolio planning and performance management in a single, easy-to-use solution. The application helps you:

  • Generate a comprehensive view
    of all portfolio profitability components
  • Adjust and align underwriting strategies to support long-term goals
  • Tailor your view of data to match specific business needs

GC AdvantagePoint® applies a powerful analytic engine to risk insights previously viewed only in isolation. This integrated solution helps Guy Carpenter clients enhance underwriting discipline, improve profitability and drive growth.

The Best Thinking

With the strategic objective to be a leader in risk evaluation, Guy Carpenter works hand in hand with some of the world’s best minds to deliver the most current thinking on matters of critical importance to our clients.  Most recently these include: City University of Hong Kong, Columbia University and Instituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia.